Thought to gather analyses I find on Net Zero and related emissions reductions topics.
Think of Net Zero as the atmospheric state in which greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere are balanced by greenhouse gases being removed from the atmosphere, by human actions.
Does that make sense?
At Net Zero, we’re effectively no longer altering the chemical composition of the atmosphere through man-made gaseous additions. Our emission additions are ‘netted out’ or ‘offset’ by emissions removals.
Basics
What’s The Difference Between Carbon Neutral and Net Zero – Ecometrica, 2021
I gave a vague answer on the diff between ‘Carbon Neutral’ and ‘Net Zero’, and this page helped. Net Zero is the ‘whole planet’ expression referring to the atmospheric balance in which greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere are equal to – i.e. balanced by – greenhouse gases being removed from the atmosphere. And, the expression Net Zero refers to all greenhouse gases and not just carbon (as a molecule within carbon dioxide). Carbon neutral is for an entity, and carbon only.
Projections
Net Zero by 2050 – International Energy Agency (IEA), May 2021
The most comprehensive analysis I have seen, with an optimistic tilt to it. And the graphic design of the interactive page is stunning. Enjoy scrolling, and scrolling, and scrolling and watching the data and emphases change as you go from one decade to the next. Key underlying data is available also in the Data Browser page. And, the best summary sits within the Launch Presentation.
Emission Reduction Techniques
Carbon Dioxide Removal Primer – eds. J Wilcox, B Kolosz, J Freeman, 2021
This beautiful online book is a primer on he science and social science angles, and you are learning fast and in detail from page one, in particular on the key argument for the atmosphere as to why removal of CO2 (over other greenhouse gases) is now imperative given its very long life (hundreds of years, it is believed) in the atmosphere, and the volume of hard-to-avoid emission sources created by modern living (e.g. cement manufacture, fertilizer, airplane travel and industrial shipping – see table 1.3). Thank you to Florian Maganza in The Practical Polymath #55.
Soil Carbon Storage – Nature Education Knowledge, 2012
This is an excellent primer on the role of soil within atmospheric carbon flux, and how human use of soil can lead to carbon losses to the atmosphere or storage and ‘sequestration’ from the atmosphere. There are nice graphics of carbon exchange above and below the ground, the density of soil organic carbon in the first meter of depth, and an explanation of how latitudes and humidity impact productivity and decomposition rates, and so the carbon flux.
Agricultural Practices Producing and Reducing Greenhouses Gases – Sierra Club Iowa, undated.
A short summary of how agriculture generates certain greenhouses gases (GHGs), and how agriculture practice change can increase the store of carbon in soils and help to remove carbon from the atmosphere (sequestration or ‘carbon sinking’). Three GHGs are created through farm equipment use (CO2), animal digestive processes (methane – CH4) and manure use or storage, and from nitrous oxide (N2O) in synthetic fertilizers. And ten farming techniques are cited as being able to increase carbon in soils.
A Buyer’s Guide To Soil Carbon Offsets – (carbon)plan, Jul 2021
(carbon)plan is a non-profit that analyzes climate solutions based on the best available science and data. Their Buyer’s Guide To Soil Carbon Offsets finds that “robust crediting of soil carbon is hard and that none of the existing protocols is doing enough to guarantee good outcomes”. The review covers 14 soil carbon protocols, assessing 33 attributes that are measured for four soil carbon measurement rigor, additionality (are the offsets only created because of the sale of the carbon offsets, or would those actions have taken place anyway?), durability (how long will the carbon be removed by the soil practice change, and what is the risk of the the change being impermanent?), safeguards (what are the provisions to treat landowners fairly and to engage local communities?).
A Start-Up’s Unusual Plan to Suck Carbon Out of the Sky – The Atlantic, Oct 2020
Stripe, the highly-valued online payments system start-up seems to be somewhat of a climate hero. This article gives you a sense for why, and the hard questions the Stripe Climate team asked to get there and decide to offer accompanying investment* in carbon removal technologies as an attribute of using Stripe’s payment systems. Like any software great, Stripe are making it simply, in a one-click kind of way, for their payments system users to automatically direct a fraction of their revenue towards these investments and as at December 2021, 15,000 companies from 40 countries.
Carbon Markets
The Beginning Of The Big Carbon Age – Credit Suisse, Apr 2022 (link drives PDF download)
You can open this report, just look at the excellent graphics, and get a real understanding for the numbers driving the next era of the carbon markets, putting a value on emissions reduction investments. The carbon markets are not new, but rapidly being summoned to the stage with the calculations being run behind every Net Zero pledge. Congrats to the Credit Suisse team.
The Global Carbon Market – J.P. Morgan, Oct 2021
This short paper is an excellent primer on carbon market concepts and a reminder that while not new, these are nascent markets in their development and integrity. I enjoyed in particular the statistics of market growth, not having been aware that in 2021 China became the lead country – by some distance – in the volume of industrial greenhouse gas emissions now under regulation. And, I valued being updated on the use of social cost of carbon estimates within US (update due January 2022) and UK national policy assessment.
A Blueprint for Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets to Meet the Climate Challenge – McKinsey, Jan 2021
This report showcases on McKinsey’s work for the above Final Report for the Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets, recognizing that carbon credits will play a critical role for corporations trying to reduce their emissions reductions footprint alongside their own direct reduction initiatives. The research finds that global demand for voluntary carbon credits could increase by a factor of 15 by 2030 and a factor of 100 by 2050, but that there are numerous supply side ‘mobilization challenges’ to ramping up high integrity carbon credit supply to the extent necessary, a market that is today characterized by ‘low liquidity, scarce financing, inadequate risk management services and limited data availability’.
Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets – Final Report – January 2021
The Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets is a private sector consortium* working to scale the effectiveness and efficiency of voluntary carbon markets as part of the toolkit mix to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.
*Includes buyers and sellers of carbon credits, standard setters, the financial sector, market infrastructure providers, civil society, international organizations and academics.
Business Strategy
The Net Zero Challenge – Boston Consulting Group and World Economic Forum, Jan 2022
This BCG report is directed as a primer for CEOs, opening with the competitive drivers to bring Net Zero positioning into your business model, and a framework for analyzing the challenges to look for using four the building blocks of Strategy, Operations, Business Portfolio and Organization. Per the Report’s conclusion: “The transition to net zero is on; in fact, one can argue it is a race to net zero. The world is embarking on the biggest peacetime transformation in history, which will fundamentally change the way many companies do business.” I would call this is a comprehensive ‘brainstorm tool’ for a CEO or business leader considering what to do.
Economics of Net Zero
Is A Sustainable World An Inflationary World? – Generation Investment Management, Jan 2022
Generation Investment Management argues and counter-argues, whether an energy mix transition and increasing carbon pricing will lead to systemic inflation. Different hypotheses are briefly reviewed: will less supply from reduced investment in oil and gas, carbon taxes, and commodity prices that are inputs to renewable energy technologies all contribute to inflation? Or, could consistently falling prices of renewable energy unit costs and reduced consumption patterns in a carbon-conscious world mean that we actually have a world of structurally lower emissions and general price inflation…?
The economic transformation: What would change in the net-zero transition? – McKinsey, Jan 2022
This is not a forecast, but rather plays with possible ‘significant and front-loaded’ shifts in demand, capital allocation, costs and jobs. The world “would” was an alarm bell to me. It is important to watch for objective analysis of viewpoints on what will happen, rather than speculating as to ideological woulds. This is particularly important in areas of environmental policy, where so often the rate of progress in policy development and the results of the policy can be systematically behind the objectives of those in favor.
Energy Sector Analysis
JP Morgan 2021 Annual Energy Paper – JP Morgan, Sep 2021
“Each year, we examine what’s happening on the ground as the fourth great energy transition unfolds…” In particular in this 2021 edition, Michael Cembalest – advised by Vaclav Smil (Distinguished Professor Emeritus in the Faculty of Environment at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg) – comments on the factors to watch for in the long shift ahead to de-carbonization. Cembalest is sanguine with reminders such as “China/India energy use is still soaring; and Africa’s energy use is rising from per capita levels seen in Europe in the 19th century” and shows from numerous angles how the demise of fossil fuels is so prematurely declared by energy futurists.
Greenhouse Gas Reporting and Accounting
Global GHG Accounting and Reporting Standard for Financial Industry – The Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials (PCAF), 2020
The PCAF was founded to develop standard greenhouse gas accounting methods for financial institutions to measure and disclose emissions financed by loans and investments. This standard has been reviewed by the GHG Protocol and conforms with the requirements in the standard for Category 15 activities, Corporate Value Chain (Scope 3) Accounting and Reporting Standard. This standard sits is designed to be used within requirements to assess and disclose climate-related risks in line with the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and within guidelines for setting targets using the Science Based Targets Initiative to anchor Net Zero goals and underlying plans. And, you’ll see a nice summary of the different steps per the below.
With appreciation to Florian Maganza for comments on the structure and content organization of this page.
